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Sansinena vs Deportivo Camioneros — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sansinena
Sansinena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
4/18/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 2Estadio Luis Molina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sansinena48%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Camioneros24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sansinena
1.30
Deportivo Camioneros
0.83

Sansinena creates 57% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sansinena
1.26
Deportivo Camioneros
0.77

allows per match

Sansinena
0.89
Deportivo Camioneros
1.34

finishing

Sansinena+0.00on par
Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sansinena ↓

Deportivo Camioneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sansinena or draw
76%
Sansinena or Deportivo Camioneros
71%
Draw or Deportivo Camioneros
52%

Winning margin

Sansinena wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sansinena 1+ goals
73%
Sansinena 2+ goals
37%
Sansinena 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sansinena (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sansinena at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 81 matches

Deportivo Camioneros away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.34 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sansinena attack 1.26 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Deportivo Camioneros attack 0.77 + Sansinena defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sansinena scores more
48%
level
29%
Deportivo Camioneros scores more
24%

Sansinena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sansinena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sansinena vs Deportivo Camioneros

Sansinena beat Deportivo Camioneros 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Molina in General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires.