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Sansinena vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sansinena
Sansinena
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
10/30/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 30Estadio Luis Molina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sansinena42%
×Draw31%
Ciudad de Bolívar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sansinena
1.13
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.85

Sansinena creates 33% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 78 away

creates per match

Sansinena
1.26
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.82

allows per match

Sansinena
0.89
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.99

finishing

Sansinena+0.00on par
Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sansinena ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sansinena or draw
73%
Sansinena or Ciudad de Bolívar
69%
Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar
58%

Winning margin

Sansinena wins by 2+
18%
Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sansinena 1+ goals
68%
Sansinena 2+ goals
31%
Sansinena 3+ goals
11%
Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
57%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
21%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sansinena (draw refunded)
61%
Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sansinena at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 81 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.99 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sansinena attack 1.26 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.82 + Sansinena defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sansinena scores more
42%
level
31%
Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
27%

Sansinena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sansinena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sansinena 3–2 Ciudad de Bolívar

Sansinena beat Ciudad de Bolívar 3-2 in Torneo Federal A on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Molina in General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires.