Sansinena 1–1 Circulo Deportivo: Result & Stats

Sansinena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Circulo Deportivo

5/5/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 1 - 7Estadio Luis Molina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Sansinena54%

×Draw27%

Circulo Deportivo19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SansinenaExpected goals in this matchCirculo Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.74

Sansinena

1.46

Circulo Deportivo

0.74

Sansinena creates 97% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 93 away

1.26

creates per match

0.60

0.89

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sansinena

1.26

Circulo Deportivo

0.60

allows per match

Sansinena

0.89

Circulo Deportivo

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sansinena+0.00on par

Circulo Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sansinena ↓

Circulo Deportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sansinena or draw

81%

Sansinena or Circulo Deportivo

73%

Draw or Circulo Deportivo

46%

Winning margin

Sansinena wins by 2+

28%

Circulo Deportivo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sansinena 1+ goals

77%

Sansinena 2+ goals

43%

Sansinena 3+ goals

18%

Circulo Deportivo 1+ goals

52%

Circulo Deportivo 2+ goals

17%

Circulo Deportivo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sansinena (draw refunded)

74%

Circulo Deportivo (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sansinena at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 81 matches

Circulo Deportivo away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sansinena attack 1.26 + Circulo Deportivo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Circulo Deportivo attack 0.60 + Sansinena defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sansinena scores more

54%

level

27%

Circulo Deportivo scores more

19%

Sansinena at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sansinena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff