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Sansinena vs Alvarado — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sansinena
Sansinena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alvarado
Alvarado
2/10/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Luis Molina (General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sansinena41%
×Draw30%
Alvarado29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sansinena
1.15
Alvarado
0.93

Sansinena creates 24% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sansinena
1.26
Alvarado
0.96

allows per match

Sansinena
0.89
Alvarado
1.04

finishing

Sansinena+0.00on par
Alvarado+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sansinena ↓

Alvarado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sansinena or draw
71%
Sansinena or Alvarado
70%
Draw or Alvarado
59%

Winning margin

Sansinena wins by 2+
17%
Alvarado wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sansinena 1+ goals
68%
Sansinena 2+ goals
32%
Sansinena 3+ goals
11%
Alvarado 1+ goals
61%
Alvarado 2+ goals
24%
Alvarado 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sansinena (draw refunded)
58%
Alvarado (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sansinena at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 81 matches

Alvarado away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sansinena attack 1.26 + Alvarado defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Alvarado attack 0.96 + Sansinena defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sansinena scores more
41%
level
30%
Alvarado scores more
29%

Sansinena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sansinena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sansinena 1–0 Alvarado

Sansinena beat Alvarado 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Molina (General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires).