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Sanna Khanh Hoa vs Tay Ninh — V.League 2 2020

Sanna Khanh Hoa
Sanna Khanh Hoa
FT
4 – 0
Tay Ninh
Tay Ninh
7/5/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 6Sân vận động 19 tháng 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa63%
×Draw25%
Tay Ninh12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.58
Tay Ninh
0.53

Sanna Khanh Hoa creates 198% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.41
Tay Ninh
0.25

allows per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
0.82
Tay Ninh
1.75

finishing

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par
Tay Ninh+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanna Khanh Hoa ↓

Tay Ninh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sanna Khanh Hoa or draw
88%
Sanna Khanh Hoa or Tay Ninh
75%
Draw or Tay Ninh
37%

Winning margin

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+
35%
Tay Ninh wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals
79%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals
47%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals
21%
Tay Ninh 1+ goals
41%
Tay Ninh 2+ goals
10%
Tay Ninh 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)
84%
Tay Ninh (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanna Khanh Hoa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 44 matches

Tay Ninh away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 1.41 + Tay Ninh defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tay Ninh attack 0.25 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more
63%
level
25%
Tay Ninh scores more
12%

Sanna Khanh Hoa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sanna Khanh Hoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanna Khanh Hoa vs Tay Ninh

Sanna Khanh Hoa beat Tay Ninh 4-0 in V.League 2 on July 5, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động 19 tháng 8 in Nha Trang.