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Sanna Khanh Hoa vs Song Lam Nghe An — V.League 1 2019

Sanna Khanh Hoa
Sanna Khanh Hoa
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
8/18/2019V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 21Sân vận động 19 tháng 8 (Nha Trang Stadium) (Nha Trang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa38%
×Draw27%
Song Lam Nghe An36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.29
Song Lam Nghe An
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.03
Song Lam Nghe An
0.90

allows per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.60
Song Lam Nghe An
1.55

finishing

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par
Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanna Khanh Hoa ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sanna Khanh Hoa or draw
64%
Sanna Khanh Hoa or Song Lam Nghe An
73%
Draw or Song Lam Nghe An
62%

Winning margin

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+
17%
Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals
72%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals
37%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals
14%
Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
71%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
36%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)
51%
Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanna Khanh Hoa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 1.03 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Song Lam Nghe An attack 0.90 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more
38%
level
27%
Song Lam Nghe An scores more
36%

Sanna Khanh Hoa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sanna Khanh Hoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Sanna Khanh Hoa 1–4 Song Lam Nghe An

Song Lam Nghe An beat Sanna Khanh Hoa 4-1 in V.League 1 on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động 19 tháng 8 (Nha Trang Stadium) (Nha Trang).