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Sanna Khanh Hoa vs Sai Gon — V.League 1 2019

Sanna Khanh Hoa
Sanna Khanh Hoa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sai Gon
Sai Gon
10/19/2019V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 25Sân v?n d?ng 19 tháng 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa39%
×Draw25%
Sai Gon35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.45
Sai Gon
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.03
Sai Gon
1.12

allows per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.60
Sai Gon
1.86

finishing

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par
Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanna Khanh Hoa ↓

Sai Gon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sanna Khanh Hoa or draw
65%
Sanna Khanh Hoa or Sai Gon
75%
Draw or Sai Gon
61%

Winning margin

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+
19%
Sai Gon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals
77%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals
42%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals
18%
Sai Gon 1+ goals
74%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
39%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)
53%
Sai Gon (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanna Khanh Hoa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 1.03 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more
39%
level
25%
Sai Gon scores more
35%

Sanna Khanh Hoa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sanna Khanh Hoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanna Khanh Hoa vs Sai Gon

Sanna Khanh Hoa and Sai Gon drew 0-0 in V.League 1 on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Sân v?n d?ng 19 tháng 8.