Sanna Khanh Hoa 3–0 Ho Chi Minh: Result & Stats

Sanna Khanh Hoa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ho Chi Minh

7/29/2023

V.League 1 · Relegation Round - 3Sân vận động 19 tháng 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa35%

×Draw26%

Ho Chi Minh38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanna Khanh HoaExpected goals in this matchHo Chi Minh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.33

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.27

Ho Chi Minh

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 89 away

1.03

creates per match

1.06

1.60

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.03

Ho Chi Minh

1.06

allows per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.60

Ho Chi Minh

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanna Khanh Hoa ↓

Ho Chi Minh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sanna Khanh Hoa or draw

62%

Sanna Khanh Hoa or Ho Chi Minh

74%

Draw or Ho Chi Minh

65%

Winning margin

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+

15%

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals

72%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals

36%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals

14%

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

74%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

38%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)

48%

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanna Khanh Hoa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Ho Chi Minh away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.51 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 1.03 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.06 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more

35%

level

26%

Ho Chi Minh scores more

38%

Ho Chi Minh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff