Sanna Khanh Hoa 2–1 Công An Nhân Dân

Sanna Khanh Hoa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Công An Nhân Dân

12/22/2023

V.League 1 · Round 7Sân vận động 19 tháng 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa26%

×Draw25%

Công An Nhân Dân50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanna Khanh HoaExpected goals in this matchCông An Nhân Dân

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.64

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.10

Công An Nhân Dân

1.64

Công An Nhân Dân creates 49% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 48 away

1.03

creates per match

1.67

1.60

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.03

Công An Nhân Dân

1.67

allows per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.60

Công An Nhân Dân

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanna Khanh Hoa ↓

Công An Nhân Dân →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sanna Khanh Hoa or draw

50%

Sanna Khanh Hoa or Công An Nhân Dân

75%

Draw or Công An Nhân Dân

74%

Winning margin

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+

10%

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals

67%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals

30%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals

10%

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals

81%

Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals

49%

Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)

34%

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanna Khanh Hoa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Công An Nhân Dân away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 1.03 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Công An Nhân Dân attack 1.67 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more

26%

level

25%

Công An Nhân Dân scores more

50%

Công An Nhân Dân at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff