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Sanna Khanh Hoa vs Binh Duong — V.League 1 2019

Sanna Khanh Hoa
Sanna Khanh Hoa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Binh Duong
Binh Duong
12/10/2023V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 5Sân vận động 19 tháng 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa36%
×Draw27%
Binh Duong38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.27
Binh Duong
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.03
Binh Duong
1.01

allows per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.60
Binh Duong
1.51

finishing

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par
Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanna Khanh Hoa ↓

Binh Duong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sanna Khanh Hoa or draw
62%
Sanna Khanh Hoa or Binh Duong
73%
Draw or Binh Duong
64%

Winning margin

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+
16%
Binh Duong wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals
72%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals
36%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals
14%
Binh Duong 1+ goals
73%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
38%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)
49%
Binh Duong (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanna Khanh Hoa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.51 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 1.03 + Binh Duong defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Binh Duong attack 1.01 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more
36%
level
27%
Binh Duong scores more
38%

Binh Duong at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Sanna Khanh Hoa 0–2 Binh Duong

Binh Duong beat Sanna Khanh Hoa 2-0 in V.League 1 on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động 19 tháng 8 in Nha Trang.