Sanluqueño 2–1 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Sanluqueño

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tarazona

N. Tounkara 51'

Zequi 34'

Vaquero 72'

11/29/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sanluqueño43%

×Draw30%

Tarazona27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SanluqueñoExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.88

Sanluqueño

1.18

Tarazona

0.88

Sanluqueño creates 34% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 32 away

1.05

creates per match

0.56

1.20

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Sanluqueño

1.05

Tarazona

0.56

allows per match

Sanluqueño

1.20

Tarazona

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw

73%

Sanluqueño or Tarazona

70%

Draw or Tarazona

57%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+

18%

Tarazona wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals

69%

Sanluqueño 2+ goals

33%

Sanluqueño 3+ goals

12%

Tarazona 1+ goals

59%

Tarazona 2+ goals

22%

Tarazona 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)

61%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Tarazona defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tarazona attack 0.56 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sanluqueño scores more

43%

level

30%

Tarazona scores more

27%

Sanluqueño at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sanluqueño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

29'

33'

34'

51'

59'

Kikin← Zequi

59'

O. Lorenzo← J. Feria

59'

F. Moreno← J. Gallastegui

59'

A. Ramon← M. Trilles

59'

J. Gomez← D. Cubillas

59'

S. Armero← D. Rodriguez

68'

68'

72'

80'

86'

88'

J. Arruabarrena← Rodri

88'

A. Gomez← N. Tounkara

Sanluqueño

Tarazona

1

Josele

2

Lopez

5

▼

Traore

4

▼

Trilles

14

Borge

3

Chechu

15

▼

Alonso

6

Carrasco

23

▼

Rodriguez

9

▼

7

13

2

18

5

3

21

16

⚽

▼

Tounkara

8

▼

Gallasteg

9

⚽

▼

Zequi

17

▼

Rodri

10

▼

Feria

Manager: José Pérez

59'▲Kikin←▼Zequi

59'▲O. Lorenzo←▼J. Feria

59'▲F. Moreno←▼J. Gallastegui

88'▲J. Arruabarrena←▼Rodri

88'▲A. Gomez←▼N. Tounkara

Sanluqueño substitutes

1Kudakovskiy25Valencia7Kikin11Lorenzo12Rodriguez19Juarez20Arruabarrena22Carneil23Gomez27Gonzalez28Moreno

Manager: Juanma Barrero

59'▲A. Ramon←▼M. Trilles

59'▲J. Gomez←▼D. Cubillas

59'▲S. Armero←▼D. Rodriguez

68'▲Vaquero←▼B. Traore

68'▲A. Fita←▼I. Alonso

Tarazona substitutes

13Amigo8Ramon11Gomez19Armero20Martinez22Vaquero27Fita

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Tarazona

Sanluqueño beat Tarazona 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 29, 2025.

Goals: Zequi (34'), N. Tounkara (51'), Vaquero (72').

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.

Sanluqueño vs Tarazona — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Tarazona