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Sanluqueño vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
1/20/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sanluqueño38%
×Draw29%
Real Madrid II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanluqueño
1.17
Real Madrid II
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sanluqueño
1.05
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Sanluqueño
1.20
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw
66%
Sanluqueño or Real Madrid II
71%
Draw or Real Madrid II
62%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+
16%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals
69%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
33%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
11%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
66%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
30%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
53%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sanluqueño scores more
38%
level
29%
Real Madrid II scores more
34%

Sanluqueño at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sanluqueño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sanluqueño 2–1 Real Madrid II

Sanluqueño beat Real Madrid II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.