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Sanluqueño vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
9/2/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sanluqueño41%
×Draw28%
Mérida AD30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanluqueño
1.25
Mérida AD
1.03

Sanluqueño creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sanluqueño
1.05
Mérida AD
0.87

allows per match

Sanluqueño
1.20
Mérida AD
1.45

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw
70%
Sanluqueño or Mérida AD
72%
Draw or Mérida AD
59%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+
18%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals
71%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
36%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
13%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
64%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
28%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
58%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sanluqueño scores more
41%
level
28%
Mérida AD scores more
30%

Sanluqueño at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sanluqueño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sanluqueño 2–2 Mérida AD

Sanluqueño and Mérida AD drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.