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Sanluqueño vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melilla
Melilla
12/10/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sanluqueño52%
×Draw27%
Melilla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanluqueño
1.40
Melilla
0.78

Sanluqueño creates 79% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sanluqueño
1.05
Melilla
0.37

allows per match

Sanluqueño
1.20
Melilla
1.74

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw
79%
Sanluqueño or Melilla
73%
Draw or Melilla
48%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+
25%
Melilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals
75%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
41%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
17%
Melilla 1+ goals
54%
Melilla 2+ goals
18%
Melilla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
71%
Melilla (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Melilla away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Melilla defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40

Melilla attack 0.37 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sanluqueño scores more
52%
level
27%
Melilla scores more
21%

Sanluqueño at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sanluqueño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Melilla

Sanluqueño beat Melilla 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.