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Sanluqueño vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
9/26/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sanluqueño42%
×Draw26%
Linares Deportivo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanluqueño
1.44
Linares Deportivo
1.22

Sanluqueño creates 18% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sanluqueño
1.05
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Sanluqueño
1.20
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw
68%
Sanluqueño or Linares Deportivo
74%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
58%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+
20%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals
76%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
42%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
18%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
70%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
34%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
57%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sanluqueño scores more
42%
level
26%
Linares Deportivo scores more
32%

Sanluqueño at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sanluqueño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Sanluqueño 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.