Sanluqueño 0–2 Juventud Torremolinos

Sanluqueño

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Juventud Torremolinos

A. Camacho 65'

I. Ribeiro 48'

10/25/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sanluqueño41%

×Draw27%

Juventud Torremolinos32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SanluqueñoExpected goals in this matchJuventud Torremolinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.13

Sanluqueño

1.31

Juventud Torremolinos

1.13

Sanluqueño creates 16% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

1.05

creates per match

1.05

1.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sanluqueño

1.05

Juventud Torremolinos

1.05

allows per match

Sanluqueño

1.20

Juventud Torremolinos

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw

68%

Sanluqueño or Juventud Torremolinos

73%

Draw or Juventud Torremolinos

59%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+

18%

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals

73%

Sanluqueño 2+ goals

38%

Sanluqueño 3+ goals

14%

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals

68%

Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals

31%

Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)

56%

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.05 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sanluqueño scores more

41%

level

27%

Juventud Torremolinos scores more

32%

Sanluqueño at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sanluqueño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

33'

33'

35'

43'

45+1'

46'

B. Diallo← J. Gallastegui

46'

C. Penarroya← F. Gallego Cea

48'

I. Ribeiro

57'

Edu Lopez

61'

I. Ribeiro

63'

J. Arruabarrena← A. Juarez

63'

Gori← S. A. Lesedi

63'

U. Diao← I. Ribeiro

65'

A. Camacho

75'

J. Feria← Zequi

75'

H. Carneil← D. Satoca

79'

J. Hernandez← L. Opara

79'

Pito Camacho← Edu Lopez

83'

L. Morales← A. Castellano

88'

90'

90+2'

90+6'

Sanluqueño

Juventud

1

Martinez

2

▼

24

4

3

7

⚽

Camacho

10

▼

Cea

21

Christian

23

▼

Lesedi

11

⚽

▼

Ribeiro

19

▼

1

2

5

4

▼

Castellan

3

Cabrera

17

Rodri

21

▼

Satoca

8

▼

Gallasteg

16

Tounkara

9

▼

Zequi

19

▼

Juarez

Manager: José Pérez

46'▲B. Diallo←▼J. Gallastegui

63'▲J. Arruabarrena←▼A. Juarez

75'▲J. Feria←▼Zequi

75'▲H. Carneil←▼D. Satoca

83'▲L. Morales←▼A. Castellano

Sanluqueño substitutes

13Dominguez25Valencia12Rodriguez18Diallo30Barea7Kikin26Morales10Feria28Moreno22Carneil27Gonzalez20Arruabarrena

Manager: Antonio Calderón

46'▲C. Penarroya←▼F. Gallego Cea

63'▲Gori←▼S. A. Lesedi

63'▲U. Diao←▼I. Ribeiro

79'▲J. Hernandez←▼L. Opara

79'▲Pito Camacho←▼Edu Lopez

Juventud Torremolinos substitutes

13Cuenca12Perez22Roldan15Hernandez5Dani20Gori8Penarroya25Diao9Camacho

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Juventud Torremolinos

Juventud Torremolinos beat Sanluqueño 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 25, 2025.

Goals: I. Ribeiro (48'), A. Camacho (65').

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.

Sanluqueño vs Juventud Torremolinos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Juventud Torremolinos