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Sanluqueño vs Granada II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Granada II
Granada II
2/18/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sanluqueño49%
×Draw27%
Granada II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanluqueño
1.42
Granada II
0.92

Sanluqueño creates 54% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sanluqueño
1.05
Granada II
0.63

allows per match

Sanluqueño
1.20
Granada II
1.79

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par
Granada II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Granada II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw
76%
Sanluqueño or Granada II
73%
Draw or Granada II
51%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+
24%
Granada II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals
76%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
41%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
17%
Granada II 1+ goals
60%
Granada II 2+ goals
23%
Granada II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
67%
Granada II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Granada II away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Granada II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Granada II attack 0.63 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sanluqueño scores more
49%
level
27%
Granada II scores more
24%

Sanluqueño at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sanluqueño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Granada II

Sanluqueño beat Granada II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.