Sanluqueño 0–3 Atlético Madrid II: Result & Stats

Sanluqueño

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Madrid II

Sergio Guerrero 67'

Diego Bri 63'

S. El Jebari 16'

4/7/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sanluqueño35%

×Draw28%

Atlético Madrid II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SanluqueñoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.19

Sanluqueño

1.16

Atlético Madrid II

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

1.05

creates per match

1.19

1.20

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sanluqueño

1.05

Atlético Madrid II

1.19

allows per match

Sanluqueño

1.20

Atlético Madrid II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Atlético Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw

63%

Sanluqueño or Atlético Madrid II

72%

Draw or Atlético Madrid II

65%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+

15%

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals

69%

Sanluqueño 2+ goals

32%

Sanluqueño 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)

49%

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sanluqueño scores more

35%

level

28%

Atlético Madrid II scores more

37%

Atlético Madrid II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

4'

16'

27'

41'

45+2'

45+2'

46'

Álex Guti← Álex Escardó

46'

F. Mwepu← Martín Calderón

63'

S. Perez

63'

Diego Bri

67'

Sergio Guerrero

70'

Airam Cabrera← Pablo Carbonell

70'

Víctor Díaz← Zelu

70'

Z. Ghailán← Nacho Ramón

77'

Álex Calatrava← Diego Bri

77'

Mario Maroto← A. Ndiaye

86'

Joel Arumí← Aitor Gismera

86'

N. Zoubdi← S. El Jebari

89'

Lalo Aguilar← Javier Boñar

Sanluqueño

Atlético

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bri

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Abel Segovia

46'▲Álex Guti←▼Álex Escardó

46'▲F. Mwepu←▼Martín Calderón

70'▲Airam Cabrera←▼Pablo Carbonell

70'▲Víctor Díaz←▼Zelu

70'▲Z. Ghailán←▼Nacho Ramón

Sanluqueño substitutes

GutiMwepuCabreraDíazGhailánRodríguezBastidaSánchezTalaverónFlereGonzálezLugo

Manager: Tevenet

77'▲Álex Calatrava←▼Diego Bri

77'▲Mario Maroto←▼A. Ndiaye

86'▲Joel Arumí←▼Aitor Gismera

86'▲N. Zoubdi←▼S. El Jebari

89'▲Lalo Aguilar←▼Javier Boñar

Atlético Madrid II substitutes

CalatravaMarotoArumíZoubdiAguilarRaihaniMestanzaMartínezMestre