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Sanluqueño vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
9/17/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sanluqueño41%
×Draw29%
Atlético Baleares30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanluqueño
1.23
Atlético Baleares
1.01

Sanluqueño creates 22% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sanluqueño
1.05
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Sanluqueño
1.20
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw
70%
Sanluqueño or Atlético Baleares
71%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
59%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals
71%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
35%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
58%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sanluqueño scores more
41%
level
29%
Atlético Baleares scores more
30%

Sanluqueño at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sanluqueño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Atlético Baleares

Sanluqueño beat Atlético Baleares 5-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.