Şanlıurfaspor 0–1 Yomraspor: Result & Stats

Şanlıurfaspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yomraspor

9/26/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundŞanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor50%

×Draw25%

Yomraspor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŞanlıurfasporExpected goals in this matchYomraspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Şanlıurfaspor

1.56

Yomraspor

1.00

Şanlıurfaspor creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.75

Yomraspor

1.00

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.00

Yomraspor

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Yomraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Yomraspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw

76%

Şanlıurfaspor or Yomraspor

75%

Draw or Yomraspor

50%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

26%

Yomraspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

79%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

46%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

21%

Yomraspor 1+ goals

63%

Yomraspor 2+ goals

26%

Yomraspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

67%

Yomraspor (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Yomraspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.75 + Yomraspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Yomraspor attack 1.00 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

50%

level

25%

Yomraspor scores more

24%

Şanlıurfaspor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Şanlıurfaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff