Şanlıurfaspor 2–1 Pendikspor: Result & Stats

Şanlıurfaspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pendikspor

M. Acer 85'

A. Mallé 36'

H. Kılıç 27'

12/14/2024

1. Lig · Round 16Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor34%

×Draw27%

Pendikspor39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŞanlıurfasporExpected goals in this matchPendikspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.32

Şanlıurfaspor

1.20

Pendikspor

1.32

Pendikspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 57 away

1.05

creates per match

1.42

1.22

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.05

Pendikspor

1.42

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.22

Pendikspor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Pendikspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Pendikspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw

61%

Şanlıurfaspor or Pendikspor

73%

Draw or Pendikspor

66%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

14%

Pendikspor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

70%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

34%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

12%

Pendikspor 1+ goals

73%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

38%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

46%

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

Pendikspor away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.05 + Pendikspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Pendikspor attack 1.42 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

34%

level

27%

Pendikspor scores more

39%

Pendikspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pendikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

P. Forsell

Şanlıurfaspor · M

8.3

Match Events

25'

Muhammed Gönülaçar

27'

Hasan KılıçMissed penalty

27'

H. Kılıç

36'

A. Mallé↳ C. Menize

62'

Jetmir Topalli

64'

Y. del Valle← L. Kappel

71'

H. Erçelik← C. Menize

71'

B. Karadeniz← H. Kılıç

78'

83'

85'

90+7'

90+2'

A. Gökbayrak← A. Mallé

90'

A. Öztürk← J. Topalli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŞanlıurfasporPendikspor

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots8

6Corners2

2Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots8

5On Target4

7Off Target3

4Blocked1

3Inside Box7

13Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

492Total Passes365

420Accurate Passes287

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

2Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Şanlıurfaspor vs Pendikspor

Şanlıurfaspor beat Pendikspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on December 14, 2024.

Goals: H. Kılıç (27'), A. Mallé (36'), M. Acer (85').

Şanlıurfaspor controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu in Şanlıurfa.

Şanlıurfaspor vs Pendikspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Şanlıurfaspor vs Pendikspor