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Şanlıurfaspor vs Karaman FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Şanlıurfaspor
Şanlıurfaspor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karaman FK
Karaman FK
10/19/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundŞanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor45%
×Draw27%
Karaman FK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şanlıurfaspor
1.42
Karaman FK
1.05

Şanlıurfaspor creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.40
Karaman FK
0.71

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.40
Karaman FK
1.43

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par
Karaman FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Karaman FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw
72%
Şanlıurfaspor or Karaman FK
73%
Draw or Karaman FK
55%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+
22%
Karaman FK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals
76%
Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals
41%
Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals
17%
Karaman FK 1+ goals
65%
Karaman FK 2+ goals
28%
Karaman FK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)
62%
Karaman FK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Karaman FK away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.40 + Karaman FK defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Karaman FK attack 0.71 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more
45%
level
27%
Karaman FK scores more
28%

Şanlıurfaspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Şanlıurfaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Şanlıurfaspor 3–0 Karaman FK

Şanlıurfaspor beat Karaman FK 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu in Şanlıurfa.