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Şanlıurfaspor vs Göztepe — 1. Lig 2018

Şanlıurfaspor
Şanlıurfaspor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Göztepe
Göztepe
A. Akçakın 58'
B. Artarslan 33'
U. Nayir 90+6', 90+3' (pen)
2/18/20171. Lig1. Lig · Round 21Şanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor27%
×Draw28%
Göztepe44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şanlıurfaspor
0.95
Göztepe
1.29

Göztepe creates 36% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 40 away

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.05
Göztepe
1.35

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.22
Göztepe
0.85

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par
Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw
56%
Şanlıurfaspor or Göztepe
72%
Draw or Göztepe
73%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+
10%
Göztepe wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals
61%
Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals
25%
Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals
7%
Göztepe 1+ goals
72%
Göztepe 2+ goals
37%
Göztepe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)
38%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.05 + Göztepe defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Göztepe attack 1.35 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more
27%
level
28%
Göztepe scores more
44%

Göztepe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Cemil Adican
32'
A. Akçakın← B. Karadeniz
33'
B. Artarslan
37'
Hakan Baris
43'
Artun Akcakin
46'
H. Köçer← D. NDongala
46'
U. Nayir← E. Coşkun
55'
S. Özkan← A. Kobakhidze
58'
A. Akçakın
63'
Gencer Cansev
65'
Adis Jahovic
67'
Murat Akin
78'
M. Çam← A. Solmaz
79'
Sinan Ozkan
81'
L. Gör← C. Dilaver
86'
Sinan Oren
90'
Cemil Adican
90'
Cemil Adican
90+3'
U. NayirPenalty
90+6'
U. Nayir

Possession

48%Şanlıurfaspor

Shots

3Şanlıurfaspor

Statistics

ŞanlıurfasporGöztepe
Overview
48%Possession52%
3Total Shots13
0Corners10
17Fouls23
Shots
3Total Shots13
2On Target6
1Off Target7
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls23
3Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Şanlıurfaspor vs Göztepe

Şanlıurfaspor and Göztepe drew 2-2 in 1. Lig on February 18, 2017.

Goals: B. Artarslan (33'), A. Akçakın (58'), U. Nayir (90+3' pen, 90+6').

Göztepe controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 3.

The match was played at Şanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu in Şanlıurfa.