Şanlıurfaspor 0–2 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Şanlıurfaspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Esenler Erokspor

O. Kayode 50'

J. Fernándes 45+3'

3/14/2025

1. Lig · Round 30Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor29%

×Draw26%

Esenler Erokspor45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŞanlıurfasporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.45

Şanlıurfaspor

1.11

Esenler Erokspor

1.45

Esenler Erokspor creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

1.05

creates per match

1.71

1.19

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.05

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.19

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw

55%

Şanlıurfaspor or Esenler Erokspor

74%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

71%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

11%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

67%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

30%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

10%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

77%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

42%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

39%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.05 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

29%

level

26%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

45%

Esenler Erokspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Yaşar

Esenler Erokspor · D

8.2

Match Events

45+3'

J. Fernándes↳ A. Karaman

46'

Óscar Pinchi← J. Laine

50'

O. Kayode↳ A. Karaman

56'

60'

60'

60'

61'

64'

71'

72'

M. Faye← J. Fernándes

78'

79'

80'

81'

90+4'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŞanlıurfasporEsenler

Overview

70%Possession30%

15Total Shots12

2Corners3

4Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots12

3On Target5

7Off Target6

5Blocked1

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

608Total Passes259

526Accurate Passes183

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

4Fouls12

0Yellow Cards6

1Offsides0