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Şanlıurfaspor vs Boluspor — 1. Lig 2018

Şanlıurfaspor
Şanlıurfaspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Boluspor
Boluspor
1/29/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 20Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor38%
×Draw28%
Boluspor35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şanlıurfaspor
1.23
Boluspor
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 148 away

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.05
Boluspor
1.15

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.18
Boluspor
1.40

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par
Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Boluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw
65%
Şanlıurfaspor or Boluspor
72%
Draw or Boluspor
62%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+
16%
Boluspor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals
71%
Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals
35%
Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals
13%
Boluspor 1+ goals
69%
Boluspor 2+ goals
33%
Boluspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)
52%
Boluspor (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.05 + Boluspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Boluspor attack 1.15 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more
38%
level
28%
Boluspor scores more
35%

Şanlıurfaspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Şanlıurfaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Şanlıurfaspor vs Boluspor

Boluspor beat Şanlıurfaspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on January 29, 2024.

The match was played at Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu in Şanlıurfa.