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Şanlıurfaspor vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Şanlıurfaspor
Şanlıurfaspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
4/14/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 30Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor35%
×Draw28%
Bandırmaspor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şanlıurfaspor
1.18
Bandırmaspor
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 110 away

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.05
Bandırmaspor
1.27

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor
1.18
Bandırmaspor
1.31

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw
63%
Şanlıurfaspor or Bandırmaspor
72%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
65%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+
15%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals
69%
Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals
33%
Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals
12%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
71%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
35%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)
48%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.05 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more
35%
level
28%
Bandırmaspor scores more
37%

Bandırmaspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Şanlıurfaspor vs Bandırmaspor

Şanlıurfaspor and Bandırmaspor drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu in Şanlıurfa.