Şanlıurfaspor 1–2 Adanaspor: Result & Stats

Şanlıurfaspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Adanaspor

C. Akabueze 14'

F. Kurucuk 50'

E. Çekiçi 33' (pen)

3/5/2025

1. Lig · Round 28Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor44%

×Draw28%

Adanaspor29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŞanlıurfasporExpected goals in this matchAdanaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.03

Şanlıurfaspor

1.33

Adanaspor

1.03

Şanlıurfaspor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 116 away

1.06

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.06

Adanaspor

0.89

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.17

Adanaspor

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Adanaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw

71%

Şanlıurfaspor or Adanaspor

72%

Draw or Adanaspor

56%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

20%

Adanaspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

74%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

38%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

15%

Adanaspor 1+ goals

64%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

28%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

60%

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.06 + Adanaspor defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

44%

level

28%

Adanaspor scores more

29%

Şanlıurfaspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Şanlıurfaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

C. Akabueze

Şanlıurfaspor · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

C. Akabueze

30'

Erzhan Tokotaev

33'

E. ÇekiçiPenalty

39'

41'

45+3'

46'

50'

F. Kurucuk↳ E. Çekiçi

51'

S. Kınalı← A. Yazar

59'

Sokol Cikalleshi

67'

A. Ivan← S. Çikalleshi

70'

B. Sambou← A. Begić

76'

O. Çınar← E. Çekiçi

84'

M. Altunbaş← Candeias

84'

90+5'

90+4'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŞanlıurfasporAdanaspor

Overview

66%Possession34%

13Total Shots3

7Corners2

13Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots3

4On Target2

3Off Target0

6Blocked1

5Inside Box3

8Outside Box0

Passing

66%Possession34%

455Total Passes237

348Accurate Passes133

76%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1