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Sankara Nationals vs Tamale City — Division One League 2025

Sankara Nationals
Sankara Nationals
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tamale City
Tamale City
11/1/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sankara Nationals43%
×Draw31%
Tamale City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sankara Nationals
1.14
Tamale City
0.82

Sankara Nationals creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sankara Nationals
1.21
Tamale City
1.14

allows per match

Sankara Nationals
0.50
Tamale City
1.07

finishing

Sankara Nationals+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sankara Nationals ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sankara Nationals or draw
74%
Sankara Nationals or Tamale City
69%
Draw or Tamale City
57%

Winning margin

Sankara Nationals wins by 2+
18%
Tamale City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sankara Nationals 1+ goals
68%
Sankara Nationals 2+ goals
32%
Sankara Nationals 3+ goals
11%
Tamale City 1+ goals
56%
Tamale City 2+ goals
20%
Tamale City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sankara Nationals (draw refunded)
62%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sankara Nationals at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Tamale City away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sankara Nationals attack 1.21 + Tamale City defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tamale City attack 1.14 + Sankara Nationals defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sankara Nationals scores more
43%
level
31%
Tamale City scores more
26%

Sankara Nationals at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sankara Nationals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sankara Nationals vs Tamale City

Tamale City beat Sankara Nationals 2-1 in Division One League on November 1, 2025.