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Sankara Nationals vs Real Tamale — Division One League 2025

Sankara Nationals
Sankara Nationals
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
11/29/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sankara Nationals46%
×Draw34%
Real Tamale20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sankara Nationals
1.03
Real Tamale
0.57

Sankara Nationals creates 81% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sankara Nationals
1.21
Real Tamale
0.64

allows per match

Sankara Nationals
0.50
Real Tamale
0.86

finishing

Sankara Nationals+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sankara Nationals ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Sankara Nationals or draw
80%
Sankara Nationals or Real Tamale
66%
Draw or Real Tamale
54%

Winning margin

Sankara Nationals wins by 2+
19%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sankara Nationals 1+ goals
64%
Sankara Nationals 2+ goals
28%
Sankara Nationals 3+ goals
9%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
43%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
11%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sankara Nationals (draw refunded)
70%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sankara Nationals at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sankara Nationals attack 1.21 + Real Tamale defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Real Tamale attack 0.64 + Sankara Nationals defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sankara Nationals scores more
46%
level
34%
Real Tamale scores more
20%

Sankara Nationals at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sankara Nationals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Sankara Nationals 0–0 Real Tamale

Sankara Nationals and Real Tamale drew 0-0 in Division One League on November 29, 2025.