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Sanjoanense vs Farense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Sanjoanense
Sanjoanense
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Farense
Farense
10/20/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Conde Dias Garcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sanjoanense23%
×Draw22%
Farense54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanjoanense
1.20
Farense
1.94

Farense creates 62% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sanjoanense
1.33
Farense
2.21

allows per match

Sanjoanense
1.67
Farense
1.07

finishing

Sanjoanense+0.00on par
Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanjoanense ↓

Farense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sanjoanense or draw
46%
Sanjoanense or Farense
78%
Draw or Farense
77%

Winning margin

Sanjoanense wins by 2+
9%
Farense wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Sanjoanense 1+ goals
70%
Sanjoanense 2+ goals
34%
Sanjoanense 3+ goals
12%
Farense 1+ goals
86%
Farense 2+ goals
58%
Farense 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sanjoanense (draw refunded)
30%
Farense (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanjoanense at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Farense away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanjoanense attack 1.33 + Farense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Farense attack 2.21 + Sanjoanense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sanjoanense scores more
23%
level
22%
Farense scores more
54%

Farense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanjoanense vs Farense

Farense beat Sanjoanense 4-2 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Conde Dias Garcia in São João da Madeira.