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Sanjoanense vs Canelas 2010 — Liga 3 2021

Sanjoanense
Sanjoanense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Canelas 2010
Canelas 2010
3/3/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 3Estádio Conde Dias Garcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sanjoanense40%
×Draw27%
Canelas 201033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanjoanense
1.29
Canelas 2010
1.14

Sanjoanense creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sanjoanense
1.40
Canelas 2010
0.93

allows per match

Sanjoanense
1.34
Canelas 2010
1.19

finishing

Sanjoanense+0.00on par
Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanjoanense ↓

Canelas 2010 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sanjoanense or draw
67%
Sanjoanense or Canelas 2010
73%
Draw or Canelas 2010
60%

Winning margin

Sanjoanense wins by 2+
18%
Canelas 2010 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sanjoanense 1+ goals
72%
Sanjoanense 2+ goals
37%
Sanjoanense 3+ goals
14%
Canelas 2010 1+ goals
68%
Canelas 2010 2+ goals
32%
Canelas 2010 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sanjoanense (draw refunded)
55%
Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanjoanense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanjoanense attack 1.40 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Canelas 2010 attack 0.93 + Sanjoanense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sanjoanense scores more
40%
level
27%
Canelas 2010 scores more
33%

Sanjoanense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sanjoanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Sanjoanense 1–1 Canelas 2010

Sanjoanense and Canelas 2010 drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Conde Dias Garcia in São João da Madeira.