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Sangju Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC — K League 1 2026

Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
6/17/2022K League 1K League 1 · Round 16Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC44%
×Draw26%
Suwon City FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.46
Suwon City FC
1.15

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 97 away

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.30
Suwon City FC
1.13

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.18
Suwon City FC
1.63

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

Suwon City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw
70%
Sangju Sangmu FC or Suwon City FC
74%
Draw or Suwon City FC
56%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
22%
Suwon City FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
77%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
43%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
18%
Suwon City FC 1+ goals
68%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
32%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
60%
Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + Suwon City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Suwon City FC attack 1.13 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
44%
level
26%
Suwon City FC scores more
30%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sangju Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC

Suwon City FC beat Sangju Sangmu FC 1-0 in K League 1 on June 17, 2022.

The match was played at Gimcheon Stadium in Gimcheon.