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Sanga Balende vs RCK — Ligue 1 2019

Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
FT
1 – 0
RCK
RCK
1/24/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Kashala Bonzola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sanga Balende50%
×Draw28%
RCK22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanga Balende
1.36
RCK
0.79

Sanga Balende creates 72% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sanga Balende
1.17
RCK
0.65

allows per match

Sanga Balende
0.92
RCK
1.56

finishing

Sanga Balende+0.00on par
RCK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanga Balende ↓

RCK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sanga Balende or draw
78%
Sanga Balende or RCK
72%
Draw or RCK
50%

Winning margin

Sanga Balende wins by 2+
24%
RCK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sanga Balende 1+ goals
74%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
39%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
16%
RCK 1+ goals
55%
RCK 2+ goals
19%
RCK 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
70%
RCK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanga Balende at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

RCK away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanga Balende attack 1.17 + RCK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

RCK attack 0.65 + Sanga Balende defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sanga Balende scores more
50%
level
28%
RCK scores more
22%

Sanga Balende at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sanga Balende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Sanga Balende 1–0 RCK

Sanga Balende beat RCK 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Kashala Bonzola in Mbuji-Mayi.