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Sanga Balende vs Lubumbashi Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
FT
0 – 2
Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
9/27/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Kashala Bonzola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sanga Balende48%
×Draw28%
Lubumbashi Sport24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanga Balende
1.31
Lubumbashi Sport
0.84

Sanga Balende creates 56% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 85 away

creates per match

Sanga Balende
1.17
Lubumbashi Sport
0.76

allows per match

Sanga Balende
0.92
Lubumbashi Sport
1.45

finishing

Sanga Balende+0.00on par
Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanga Balende ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sanga Balende or draw
76%
Sanga Balende or Lubumbashi Sport
72%
Draw or Lubumbashi Sport
52%

Winning margin

Sanga Balende wins by 2+
22%
Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sanga Balende 1+ goals
73%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
38%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
14%
Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
57%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
21%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
67%
Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanga Balende at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanga Balende attack 1.17 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Sanga Balende defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sanga Balende scores more
48%
level
28%
Lubumbashi Sport scores more
24%

Sanga Balende at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sanga Balende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Sanga Balende 0–2 Lubumbashi Sport

Lubumbashi Sport beat Sanga Balende 2-0 in Ligue 1 on September 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Kashala Bonzola in Mbuji-Mayi.