Lubumbashi Sport 1–1 Sanga Balende: Result & Stats

Lubumbashi Sport

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sanga Balende

3/9/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport41%

×Draw30%

Sanga Balende29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lubumbashi SportExpected goals in this matchSanga Balende

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.91

Lubumbashi Sport

1.15

Sanga Balende

0.91

Lubumbashi Sport creates 26% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

0.90

creates per match

0.63

1.18

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport

0.90

Sanga Balende

0.63

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport

1.18

Sanga Balende

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Sanga Balende →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw

71%

Lubumbashi Sport or Sanga Balende

70%

Draw or Sanga Balende

59%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+

17%

Sanga Balende wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals

68%

Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals

32%

Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals

11%

Sanga Balende 1+ goals

60%

Sanga Balende 2+ goals

23%

Sanga Balende 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)

59%

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Sanga Balende away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Sanga Balende defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sanga Balende attack 0.63 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more

41%

level

30%

Sanga Balende scores more

29%

Lubumbashi Sport at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff