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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
3/2/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 4Hiroshima Big Arch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima57%
×Draw24%
Yokohama FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.69
Yokohama FC
0.86

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 97% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.52
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.95
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
81%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Yokohama FC
76%
Draw or Yokohama FC
43%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
32%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
82%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
50%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
24%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
58%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
21%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
75%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 149 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.52 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
57%
level
24%
Yokohama FC scores more
19%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama FC

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Yokohama FC 1-0 in J1 League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Hiroshima Big Arch in Hiroshima.