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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Tokushima Vortis — J1 League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
5/15/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 14EDION Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima53%
×Draw25%
Tokushima Vortis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.56
Tokushima Vortis
0.90

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 73% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.52
Tokushima Vortis
0.85

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.95
Tokushima Vortis
1.60

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
78%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Tokushima Vortis
75%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
47%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
28%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
79%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
46%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
21%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
59%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
23%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
71%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 149 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.52 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.85 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
53%
level
25%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
22%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–1 Tokushima Vortis

Tokushima Vortis beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 in J1 League on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at EDION Stadium in Hiroshima.