Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–1 SHANGHAI SIPG

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SHANGHAI SIPG

H. Araki 19'

Gabrielzinho 83'

9/30/2025

AFC Champions League · League Phase East - 2Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima56%

×Draw25%

SHANGHAI SIPG19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.81

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.61

SHANGHAI SIPG

0.81

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 99% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

1.56

creates per match

1.05

0.56

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.56

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.05

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.56

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

81%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or SHANGHAI SIPG

75%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

44%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

30%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

80%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

48%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

22%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

56%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

19%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

75%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.56 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

56%

level

25%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

19%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Chen Wei

SHANGHAI SIPG · G

8.0

Match Events

16'

Tsukasa Shiotani

19'

H. Araki↳ S. Higashi

46'

M. Kato← Marcos Junior

55'

Ju-sung Kim

64'

Lu Wenjun← Fu Huan

64'

Leonardo← Kuai Jiwen

65'

Y. Nakajima← N. Maeda

65'

V. Germain← K. Kinoshita

73'

Yang Shiyuan← Matheus Jussa

73'

Gabrielzinho← O. Melendo

77'

Christian Alexander Jojo

83'

Gabrielzinho↳ Wei Zhen

86'

T. Arslan← S. Higashi

86'

D. Suga← H. Kawabe

90'

Gustavo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanfrecceSHANGHAI

Overview

59%Possession41%

20Total Shots7

14Corners1

8Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots7

10On Target2

6Off Target5

4Blocked0

11Inside Box4

9Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

503Total Passes363

396Accurate Passes271

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2