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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shanghai Shenhua — AFC Champions League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
12/10/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 6Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima62%
×Draw24%
Shanghai Shenhua14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.61
Shanghai Shenhua
0.61

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 164% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.56
Shanghai Shenhua
0.67

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.56
Shanghai Shenhua
1.67

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
86%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Shanghai Shenhua
76%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
38%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
34%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
80%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
48%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
22%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
46%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
13%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
82%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.56 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
62%
level
24%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
14%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 in AFC Champions League on December 10, 2025.

The match was played at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima in Hiroshima.