Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Nam Dinh: Result & Stats

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nam Dinh

2/19/2025

AFC Cup · Round of 16Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima64%

×Draw19%

Nam Dinh17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchNam Dinh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.15

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2.37

Nam Dinh

1.15

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.60

creates per match

1.29

1.00

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2.60

Nam Dinh

1.29

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.00

Nam Dinh

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Nam Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Nam Dinh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

83%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Nam Dinh

81%

Draw or Nam Dinh

36%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

42%

Nam Dinh wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

91%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

68%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

42%

Nam Dinh 1+ goals

68%

Nam Dinh 2+ goals

32%

Nam Dinh 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

79%

Nam Dinh (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Nam Dinh away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 2.60 + Nam Dinh defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.37

Nam Dinh attack 1.29 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

64%

level

19%

Nam Dinh scores more

17%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff