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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kaya — AFC Cup 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kaya
Kaya
9/19/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima66%
×Draw19%
Kaya15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2.34
Kaya
1.04

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2.60
Kaya
1.08

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.00
Kaya
2.08

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
85%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Kaya
81%
Draw or Kaya
34%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
43%
Kaya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
90%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
67%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
41%
Kaya 1+ goals
65%
Kaya 2+ goals
28%
Kaya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
81%
Kaya (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Kaya away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 2.60 + Kaya defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.34

Kaya attack 1.08 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
66%
level
19%
Kaya scores more
15%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–0 Kaya

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Kaya 3-0 in AFC Cup on September 19, 2024.

The match was played at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima in Hiroshima.