Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Johor Darul Takzim FC

A. Suzuki 47', 18' (pen)

Marcos Guilherme 3'

2/10/2026

AFC Champions League · League Phase East - 7Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima60%

×Draw23%

Johor Darul Takzim FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchJohor Darul Takzim FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.82

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.76

Johor Darul Takzim FC

0.82

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 115% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

1.56

creates per match

1.08

0.56

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.56

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.08

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.56

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

83%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Johor Darul Takzim FC

77%

Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC

40%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

34%

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

83%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

52%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

26%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

56%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

20%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

78%

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.56 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.76

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

60%

level

23%

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

17%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

S. Higashi

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · M

8.9

Match Events

-5'

Bergson

3'

Marcos Guilherme

16'

Jonathan Silva

18'

A. SuzukiPenalty

23'

37'

39'

44'

46'

R. Germain← S. Nakamura

46'

47'

60'

67'

72'

T. Arslan← T. Matsumoto

72'

K. Kinoshita← M. Kato

79'

A. Aketxe← Marcos Guilherme

79'

Yago Cesar← Jairo

86'

D. Suga← A. Suzuki

90+5'

Shuto Nakano

90+2'

S. Lowry← R. Parra

90'

Bergson← J. Figueiredo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanfrecceJohor

Overview

77%Possession23%

14Total Shots4

2.64Expected Goals (xG)0.56

11Corners1

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots4

7On Target1

2Off Target2

5Blocked1

13Inside Box4

1Outside Box0

Passing

77%Possession23%

651Total Passes194

603Accurate Passes132

93%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.37Goals Prevented0.37

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3