Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sanem vs Bettembourg — Cup 2020

Sanem
Sanem
FT
2 – 0
Bettembourg
Bettembourg
10/18/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundStade CS Sanem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sanem14%
×Draw16%
Bettembourg71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanem
1.19
Bettembourg
2.83

Bettembourg creates 138% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sanem
1.00
Bettembourg
3.00

allows per match

Sanem
2.67
Bettembourg
1.38

finishing

Sanem+0.00on par
Bettembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanem ↓

Bettembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Sanem or draw
29%
Sanem or Bettembourg
84%
Draw or Bettembourg
86%

Winning margin

Sanem wins by 2+
5%
Bettembourg wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Sanem 1+ goals
70%
Sanem 2+ goals
33%
Sanem 3+ goals
12%
Bettembourg 1+ goals
94%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
77%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Sanem (draw refunded)
16%
Bettembourg (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanem at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Bettembourg away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanem attack 1.00 + Bettembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bettembourg attack 3.00 + Sanem defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sanem scores more
14%
level
16%
Bettembourg scores more
71%

Bettembourg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bettembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanem vs Bettembourg

Sanem beat Bettembourg 2-0 in Cup on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stade CS Sanem in Sanem.