Saned Joniškis 1–3 Šiauliai: Result & Stats | Cup

Saned Joniškis

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Šiauliai

6/23/2021

Cup · Round of 16Žagarės miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Saned Joniškis3%

×Draw6%

Šiauliai91%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saned JoniškisExpected goals in this matchŠiauliai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.68

4.10

Saned Joniškis

0.68

Šiauliai

4.10

Šiauliai creates 503% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

0.20

creates per match

2.00

6.20

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Saned Joniškis

0.20

Šiauliai

2.00

allows per match

Saned Joniškis

6.20

Šiauliai

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saned Joniškis+0.00on par

Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saned Joniškis ↓

Šiauliai →

0–01%

0–14%

0–28%

0–311%

0–411%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–33%

2–43%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

66%34%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Saned Joniškis or draw

Saned Joniškis or Šiauliai

94%

Draw or Šiauliai

97%

Winning margin

Saned Joniškis wins by 2+

Šiauliai wins by 2+

79%

Team goals

Saned Joniškis 1+ goals

49%

Saned Joniškis 2+ goals

15%

Saned Joniškis 3+ goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals

98%

Šiauliai 2+ goals

90%

Šiauliai 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

Saned Joniškis (draw refunded)

Šiauliai (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saned Joniškis at home — creates 0.20, concedes 6.20 · 5 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saned Joniškis attack 0.20 + Šiauliai defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.68

Šiauliai attack 2.00 + Saned Joniškis defence 6.20 → ÷2 → 4.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 91%?"

Saned Joniškis scores more

level

Šiauliai scores more

91%

Šiauliai at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff