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Saned Joniškis vs Garliava — Cup 2020

Saned Joniškis
Saned Joniškis
FT
0 – 5
Garliava
Garliava
4/20/2024CupCup · 1st RoundŽagarės miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Saned Joniškis1%
×Draw3%
Garliava96%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saned Joniškis
0.52
Garliava
5.02

Garliava creates 865% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Saned Joniškis
0.20
Garliava
3.83

allows per match

Saned Joniškis
6.20
Garliava
0.83

finishing

Saned Joniškis+0.00on par
Garliava+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saned Joniškis ↓

Garliava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–27%
0–311%
0–414%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
74%26%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Saned Joniškis or draw
4%
Saned Joniškis or Garliava
97%
Draw or Garliava
99%

Winning margin

Saned Joniškis wins by 2+
0%
Garliava wins by 2+
88%

Team goals

Saned Joniškis 1+ goals
41%
Saned Joniškis 2+ goals
10%
Saned Joniškis 3+ goals
2%
Garliava 1+ goals
99%
Garliava 2+ goals
95%
Garliava 3+ goals
84%

Draw no bet

Saned Joniškis (draw refunded)
1%
Garliava (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saned Joniškis at home — creates 0.20, concedes 6.20 · 5 matches

Garliava away — creates 3.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saned Joniškis attack 0.20 + Garliava defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.52

Garliava attack 3.83 + Saned Joniškis defence 6.20 → ÷2 → 5.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Saned Joniškis scores more
1%
level
3%
Garliava scores more
96%

Garliava at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saned Joniškis vs Garliava

Garliava beat Saned Joniškis 5-0 in Cup on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Žagarės miesto stadionas in Žagarė.