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Åsane II vs Gneist — 3. Division - Girone 3 2025

Åsane II
Åsane II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Gneist
Gneist
J. Aasen 52'
S. Brudvik 47'
T. N. Arnesen 20' (OG)
S. Brudvik 59' (OG)
S. Aga 41'
T. Sagstad 39'
5/26/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Åsane II45%
×Draw20%
Gneist36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åsane II
2.33
Gneist
2.08

Åsane II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Åsane II
1.50
Gneist
1.67

allows per match

Åsane II
2.50
Gneist
3.17

finishing

Åsane II+0.00on par
Gneist+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åsane II ↓

Gneist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Åsane II or draw
64%
Åsane II or Gneist
80%
Draw or Gneist
55%

Winning margin

Åsane II wins by 2+
26%
Gneist wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Åsane II 1+ goals
90%
Åsane II 2+ goals
67%
Åsane II 3+ goals
41%
Gneist 1+ goals
87%
Gneist 2+ goals
61%
Gneist 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Åsane II (draw refunded)
56%
Gneist (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åsane II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Gneist away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åsane II attack 1.50 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Gneist attack 1.67 + Åsane II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Åsane II scores more
45%
level
20%
Gneist scores more
36%

Åsane II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Åsane II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
T. N. ArnesenOwn goal
39'
T. Sagstad
41'
S. Aga
47'
S. Brudvik
52'
J. Aasen
59'
S. BrudvikOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Åsane II 3–3 Gneist

Åsane II and Gneist drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 26, 2026.

Goals: T. N. Arnesen (20' o.g.), T. Sagstad (39'), S. Aga (41'), S. Brudvik (47', 59' o.g.), J. Aasen (52').