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Sandweiler vs Jeunesse Canach — Cup 2020

Sandweiler
Sandweiler
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jeunesse Canach
Jeunesse Canach
10/1/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Norbert Hubsch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sandweiler12%
×Draw16%
Jeunesse Canach72%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandweiler
1.04
Jeunesse Canach
2.71

Jeunesse Canach creates 161% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sandweiler
0.75
Jeunesse Canach
2.67

allows per match

Sandweiler
2.75
Jeunesse Canach
1.33

finishing

Sandweiler+0.00on par
Jeunesse Canach+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandweiler ↓

Jeunesse Canach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sandweiler or draw
28%
Sandweiler or Jeunesse Canach
84%
Draw or Jeunesse Canach
88%

Winning margin

Sandweiler wins by 2+
4%
Jeunesse Canach wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Sandweiler 1+ goals
65%
Sandweiler 2+ goals
28%
Sandweiler 3+ goals
9%
Jeunesse Canach 1+ goals
93%
Jeunesse Canach 2+ goals
75%
Jeunesse Canach 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Sandweiler (draw refunded)
15%
Jeunesse Canach (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandweiler at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Jeunesse Canach away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandweiler attack 0.75 + Jeunesse Canach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Jeunesse Canach attack 2.67 + Sandweiler defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sandweiler scores more
12%
level
16%
Jeunesse Canach scores more
72%

Jeunesse Canach at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Jeunesse Canach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sandweiler 1–2 Jeunesse Canach

Jeunesse Canach beat Sandweiler 2-1 in Cup on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Norbert Hubsch in Sandweiler.