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Sandweiler vs Daring Echternach — Cup 2020

Sandweiler
Sandweiler
FT
0 – 0
Daring Echternach
Daring Echternach
9/9/2020CupCup · 1st RoundStade Norbert Hubsch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sandweiler14%
×Draw19%
Daring Echternach67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandweiler
0.88
Daring Echternach
2.21

Daring Echternach creates 151% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sandweiler
0.75
Daring Echternach
1.67

allows per match

Sandweiler
2.75
Daring Echternach
1.00

finishing

Sandweiler+0.00on par
Daring Echternach+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandweiler ↓

Daring Echternach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sandweiler or draw
33%
Sandweiler or Daring Echternach
81%
Draw or Daring Echternach
86%

Winning margin

Sandweiler wins by 2+
4%
Daring Echternach wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Sandweiler 1+ goals
59%
Sandweiler 2+ goals
22%
Sandweiler 3+ goals
6%
Daring Echternach 1+ goals
89%
Daring Echternach 2+ goals
65%
Daring Echternach 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Sandweiler (draw refunded)
17%
Daring Echternach (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandweiler at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Daring Echternach away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandweiler attack 0.75 + Daring Echternach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Daring Echternach attack 1.67 + Sandweiler defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sandweiler scores more
14%
level
19%
Daring Echternach scores more
67%

Daring Echternach at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Daring Echternach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sandweiler 0–0 Daring Echternach

Sandweiler and Daring Echternach drew 0-0 in Cup on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Norbert Hubsch in Sandweiler.