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Sandviken vs Umeå FC — Superettan 2026

Sandviken
Sandviken
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
5/10/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 7Jernvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sandviken55%
×Draw23%
Umeå FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandviken
1.85
Umeå FC
1.09

Sandviken creates 70% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sandviken
1.77
Umeå FC
0.97

allows per match

Sandviken
1.21
Umeå FC
1.93

finishing

Sandviken+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw
78%
Sandviken or Umeå FC
77%
Draw or Umeå FC
45%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+
31%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals
84%
Sandviken 2+ goals
55%
Sandviken 3+ goals
28%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
66%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
30%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)
71%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 1.77 + Umeå FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.85

Umeå FC attack 0.97 + Sandviken defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sandviken scores more
55%
level
23%
Umeå FC scores more
22%

Sandviken at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandviken vs Umeå FC

Sandviken beat Umeå FC 2-1 in Superettan on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Jernvallen in Sandviken.