Sandviken 1–3 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Sandviken

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Mjallby AIF

2/22/2020

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Arena Jernvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sandviken12%

×Draw16%

Mjallby AIF72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandvikenExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.53

Sandviken

0.93

Mjallby AIF

2.53

Mjallby AIF creates 172% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.36

creates per match

2.79

2.27

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Sandviken

1.36

Mjallby AIF

2.79

allows per match

Sandviken

2.27

Mjallby AIF

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandviken+0.00on par

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw

28%

Sandviken or Mjallby AIF

84%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

88%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+

4%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals

61%

Sandviken 2+ goals

24%

Sandviken 3+ goals

7%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

92%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

71%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)

14%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 1.36 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.93

Mjallby AIF attack 2.79 + Sandviken defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sandviken scores more

12%

level

16%

Mjallby AIF scores more

72%

Mjallby AIF at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff